Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of silver reaches $100 per troy ounce at any point during the next calendar month (January 1-31, 2026). Resolution will be determined by the spot price on APMEX Silver price charts or other major precious metals pricing sources (Kitco, Spot Price, COMEX). The market resolves NO if silver closes the month below $100/oz.

Background

Silver has soared 160% in 2025, with prices touching an all-time high of $83.62 before experiencing sharp volatility. JP Morgan reduced/closed legacy shorts and accumulated physical silver between June and October 2025. Silver's rally has been driven by record industrial offtake, Chinese demand premiums ($7-8/oz in Shanghai), and export curbs looming Jan 1, 2026. Silver's role in AI data centers, solar cells, and electric vehicles has created a structural shortage, with the U.S. adding silver to its critical minerals list.

Considerations

Reports regarding JP Morgan "closing their short position in silver" are speculation—no one knows for certain if any one bank is buying or selling, as the CFTC doesn't report specific positions. Silver is still far from its inflation-adjusted price record set in 1980; to return to that level, silver would have to cost $200 per ounce today. Recent price action has been volatile, with thin liquidity into year-end positioning magnifying price gaps in both directions.