Will there be a government shut down this year?
resolved Jan 1

Will the US government officially shut down before the end of 2023?

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Double down on yes 🤷🏼‍♂️

predicted NO

I forgot I bet this way. This saved me from some other shutdown bets that I thought were going to swing.

bought Ṁ45 of YES

boy they sure still haven't done anything yet huh

edit: nvm looks like they're starting to

bought Ṁ100 of YES

They only passed funding for 45 days. They’re not getting it done in time. Zero chance.

I think the government will not shut down. A government shutdown would be politically unpopular. This could also put pressure on Congress to pass legislation to fund the government, even if they cannot agree on all of the details. A shutdown would disrupt essential government services, furlough hundreds of thousands of workers, and hurt the economy. Both Democrats and Republicans are aware of the negative consequences of a shutdown, and this could motivate them to reach an agreement to fund the government.

Also, there is a precedent for Congress passing a funding bill at the last minute. Congress has often passed funding bills just before the deadline to avoid a shutdown. This suggests that even if Congress is unable to reach an agreement on a budget deal before the November 17 deadline, they may be willing to pass a short-term funding bill to keep the government running.

predicted YES

@JulioYurivilca The problem is the following
1. No bill can be proposed until after a Speaker (or at least a temporary Speaker) is decided on.

  1. Some people are okay with the fact that it's unpopular because they think that the other side will be blamed it.

  2. Some people think that the status quo is bad enough that funding the budget would be worse than a shutdown; at least a shutdown might call attention to some of the problems in the budget and get people to change it. This view would be more plausible if a "shutdown" actually shut anything important down or saved the government any money (it doesn't because even the few people deemed "non-essential" are guaranteed to get all of their backpay after the shutdown is over)

We might get some people to compromise over a Speaker and a budget, but I'm not holding my breath.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I have put up a 10k limit order at 59% on Yes. It will last for 1 month.

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch That is bold! You think a new speaker is gonna kickstart their legacy by doubling down on brinksmanship? I think Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer are firmly in control now and can dictate the terms of a clean omnibus package to an unprepared Speaker. Not to mention Joe Biden has been passing spending bills since Nixon was president. I may take your bet…

predicted YES

@BTE Name someone who went broke betting on GOP dysfunction during the post-Trump era.

World government

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@KamilStaszewski Removed. Sorry it auto populated.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I assume this is USA despite the world hashtag

predicted YES

@ChadwickMiller Removed tag. Updated description. Thank you.