Will the US 2024 presidential election go the way of the popular vote?
Plus
26
Ṁ2319resolved Nov 6
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
The United States presidential election uses a controversial winner-takes-all system where votes from individuals are batched together in each state to be counted as one voice, via an electoral college. This makes it possible for one candidate to win while more individual votes were cast for another.
This has happened a handful of times already, including in 2016 and 2000. See Wikipedia for a full list: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote
This market will resolve to YES if the next elected president won the popular vote, otherwise it will resolve to NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
Will any candidate win a majority of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?
1% chance
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
98% chance
Will the 2024 US Presidential election happen normally?
97% chance
How will the 2024 US Presidential Election be decided?
Will the candidate who wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election become president?
99% chance
Will there be a split between the popular vote and the electoral college in 2024?
2% chance
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
1% chance
Will any candidate receive a record number of votes in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
52% chance
Will the last presidential election in the USA be in 2024?
9% chance