Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2025?
15
111
250
2025
3%
chance

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Uranus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Uranus must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.


Questions with the same criteria:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61 (this question)

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/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61 (this question)

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To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 10 million kilometers threshold from Uranus. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 10 million kilometers threshold from Uranus. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Uranus.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Uranus2.jpg

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@RemNi I think given the required flight times with realistic technologies, this can already be resolved No, or did I miss the start of this mission years ago?

@SimonKletteraffe a lot can happen in 12 months

@RemNi just not travelling tl Uranus. It take 9 months to get to Mars alone.

@mec sure, with Hohmann transfer orbits and chemical rockets