Will Michael Trazzi make a video about apocalypse cults before 2025?
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2
340
2025
34%
chance

Resolves as YES if Michael Trazzi (https://www.youtube.com/c/TheInsideView) makes a video where the main theme is apocalypse cults (or something directly related to this) before January 1st 2025 (and after March 1st 2024).

Multiple different formats are acceptable for this video, including but not limited to: presentation videos, interviews, single-person monologues.

Apocalypse cults, also known as doomsday cults, are religious or secular groups that believe in an impending end of the world or civilization. These cults often have a charismatic leader who claims to have special knowledge or prophecies about the apocalypse. Members of these cults may prepare for the end times by stockpiling supplies, building shelters, or engaging in rituals.

Throughout history, various apocalypse cults have emerged, often tied to millenarianism—the belief that a major transformation of society will occur after a thousand-year period. Some notable examples include:

  1. The Millerites (1830s-1840s): Founded by William Miller, who predicted that Jesus Christ would return to Earth in 1843-1844.

  2. Heaven's Gate (1970s-1997): Led by Marshall Applewhite, this cult believed that a spacecraft trailing the Hale-Bopp comet would take them to a higher level of existence. In 1997, 39 members committed mass suicide.

  3. Branch Davidians (1955-1993): Led by David Koresh, this group believed in an imminent apocalypse. A siege at their Waco, Texas compound in 1993 ended in a fire that killed Koresh and many of his followers.

  4. Aum Shinrikyo (1984-present): This Japanese cult, led by Shoko Asahara, believed in an impending nuclear war. In 1995, members released sarin gas in the Tokyo subway, killing 13 people and injuring thousands.


Modern apocalypse cults continue to emerge, often incorporating elements of popular culture, conspiracy theories, or concerns about current events (e.g., pandemics, climate change, or political unrest) into their beliefs about the end times.


Videos that come close to resolving this question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIHS7w1h6Jc ; In this video, Michael Trazzi mentions apocalypse cults at the start in reference to a tweet by Yann Lecun. However, this does not qualify because the main theme of the video is "managing mental health and anxiety with respect to AI Doom" -- as opposed to "apocalypse cults" being the main theme.

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Apocalypse cults, also known as doomsday cults, are religious or secular groups that believe in an impending end of the world or civilization. These cults often have a charismatic leader who claims to have special knowledge or prophecies about the apocalypse. Members of these cults may prepare for the end times by stockpiling supplies, building shelters, or engaging in rituals.

Throughout history, various apocalypse cults have emerged, often tied to millenarianism—the belief that a major transformation of society will occur after a thousand-year period.

  • secular or religious group: so any group

  • Charismatic leader: how charismatic? Group leadership in general self selects for better than average or even exceptional charisma, this doesn’t seem specific to cults

  • Special knowledge or prophecies about the apocalypse: if the apocalypse is actually arriving, and someone has intellectual reasons to believe so, does that count as ‘special knowledge’?

  • ‘Prepare for endtimes by <doing things that don’t help prepare for endtimes>’. If someone prepares for endtimes by trying to avert the end times, does that count as a cultish act?

  • In this case i don’t think it’s connected to millenarianism, but ig it’s predicting a major transformation to society that is epistemically pretty likely to many people.

So does AI doomerism count as a cult? I would think not, but your definition may make an accurate depiction of reality + sane organizational structure to avert bad outcomes technically count as a cult, which is a noncentral case at best

@Bayesian In the context of this question, the rationality of the group's special interest does not affect the qualifier that a group is a "cult". If this youtuber has a sudden change of mindset and comes to the conclusion that AI safety/alignment is a cult, and decides to make a video about it with "apocalypse cults" being the main theme, that would qualify.

Alternatively, if this youtuber makes a video about safety/alignment not being a cult, and contrasts it to historical apocalypse cults to show in what way it is different (for instance, different because previous apocalypse cults were irrational), that would also qualify.

Does that make sense?

@Bayesian Or were you asking a question that wasn't about this market's resolution?

@RemNi Does it count?

@Bayesian I'm watching the video, think it doesn't count because it's not "apocalypse cults being the main theme" in the sense that I intended when I wrote the question (and as explained in the description). But will watch the whole video to make a decision.

bought Ṁ50 YES

i don’t think he thinks apolyptic cults in the context of ai are currently a thing; but he is talking ab a thing that others take to be an apolyptic cult. Makes sense, either side is reasonable imo

@Bayesian mmh yeah see what you mean. Maybe I'll add some more detail to the description to indicate that it has to be a video explictly about "apocalypse cults" as a theme, like talking about historic examples etc

@Bayesian the video has good suggestions on doing exercise/cardio to relieve anxiety

@Bayesian but after watching, this video does not qualify as being "about apocalypse cults" as a main theme

bought Ṁ150 NO

@RemNi That makes sense. If it werent for interest rates i would bring this market pretty low, i don’t expect that to happen, since i don’t think trazzi thinks ai cults are much of a thing nor will they be by the end of 2024