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MANIFOLD
[TDF 2026] When will Torstein Traeen lose the yellow jersey?
3
Ṁ1kṀ2.6k
Jul 26
5%
Stage 6 (Pau-Gavarnie Gedre)
3%
Stage 9 (Malemort-Ussel)
5%
Stage 10 (Aurillac-Le Lioran)
4%
Stage 13 (Dole-Belfort)
15%
Stage 14 (Mulhouse-Le Markstein)
22%
Stage 15 (Champagnole-Plateau de Solaison)
12%
Stage 16 (ITT)
3%
Never, he will win the Tour
32%
Other

Time for a market about my favorite cycling archetype: heroic defenses by breakaway riders who gain the GC lead!

Resolves to the first stage where Torstein Traeen is not awarded the yellow jersey at the end of the stage.

On stage 4, Traeen was part of a breakaway that gained a large sum of time over the peloton containing the main GC contenders. He held a lead of 28 seconds over Sean Quinn and 3:50 over Mathias Vacek, his breakaway companions, and 7:53 over top GC contenders Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

I pushed this really far toward Other, come prove me wrong.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Eliza Do you want to trade more specifically on the final GC stages? I can break those out if you want, I didn't figure there would be many takers

@RedzoneITG No I like being able to buy the whole Bundle. I'm just making funny comments because comments make your market get shown to more people.

@RedzoneITG At the Vuelta last year, Traeen only finished like 9.5 minutes behind Jonas after having a 2.5 minute lead. He's got a whole team to help him here and I expect he would do everything to hold onto it as long as possible. Lost 4 mins on Angliru, but there were some other hard finishes that he lost even less on.

@Eliza I'm kinda thinking he can lose 4+ minutes on Solaison and a lot of the stages before that should be breakaway or non-GC/chill type of days because the best teams will want to save their energy. Maybe he loses 2 minutes on Le Markstein. Just feels to me he will still be in the lead by the ITT. I could be wrong.

This is a good market and I want to subsidize parts of it specially. @wasabipesto any update on cpmm-multi-2 feature review?