Assuming https://manifold.markets/Reddit/will-twitter-user-deprogrammingsock?r=UmVkZGl0 resolves "YES", what effect will this have on @deprogrammingsocks' twitter account followers a week after any form of announcement?
Follower count will be recorded at time of announcement, and recorded exactly 168 hours later and compared against control weeks starting now, 8/7/24, 21:40PM EST. (1307). Since twitter accounts will typically gain followers anyway, the "influence" of the announcement must be gleaned by subtracting the average change determined in the control weeks from the observed change.
Control weeks:
8/7/24 - 8/14/24 : 1307, 1341. Change of 34.
8/14/24 - 8/21/24 : 1341, 1360. Change of 29.
8/21/24 - 8/28/24 : 1360, 1358. Change of -2.
8/28/24 - 9/4/24 : 1358, 1367. Change of 9.
9/4/24 - 9/13/24 : 1367, 1635. Change of 268.
9/13/24 - 9/20/24 : 1635, 1735. Change of 100
9/20/24 - 9/23/24 : SUSPENDED
Current average change per week: 68
1,000@jacksonpolack Thanks for the tip! It seemed obvious to start betting on the repercussions of deprogrammingsocks' impending transition since the market on that is 96% yes.