Derived from Saul suggesting this is plausible here: https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex
Resolves YES if there's an event after 20 June 2024 and starts before 1 Jan 2025 with all of the following properties:
more than 50 attendees
organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)
has the name "manifest" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. "manivibefest" or "lessfest" would count)
is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)
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@jacksonpolack /Austin/how-many-minifest-tickets-will-we-s
tickets sold > attendance and I wasn’t there to confirm but seems like >50 is safe
@creator There was minifest https://minifest.is/ , which, if it had more than 50 people, should resolve the linked market (and therefore this one)
i'm assuming a "minifest" would count (given that it's a portmanteau in the name, as long as it has >50 attendees), although it's a longshot