Will there be another Manifest before the end of 2024?
Will there be another Manifest before the end of 2024?
41
1kṀ19k
resolved Dec 28
Resolved
YES

Derived from Saul suggesting this is plausible here: https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex

Resolves YES if there's an event after 20 June 2024 and starts before 1 Jan 2025 with all of the following properties:

  • more than 50 attendees

  • organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)

  • has the name "manifest" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. "manivibefest" or "lessfest" would count)

  • is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)

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5mo
5mo

@nikki were there more than 50 people

5mo

@jacksonpolack /Austin/how-many-minifest-tickets-will-we-s

tickets sold > attendance and I wasn’t there to confirm but seems like >50 is safe

5mo

@jacksonpolack thanks for resolving

6mo

@creator There was minifest https://minifest.is/ , which, if it had more than 50 people, should resolve the linked market (and therefore this one)

5mo

@creator nudge

bought Ṁ2,500 YES6mo

bought Ṁ50 YES8mo

8mo

@nikki I hope it's not Dec 22/23 (I think it's pretty typical to be unavailable the weekend before the holidays)

bought Ṁ25 YES8mo

bought Ṁ15 YES8mo

i'm assuming a "minifest" would count (given that it's a portmanteau in the name, as long as it has >50 attendees), although it's a longshot

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