Will there be another Manifest before the end of 2024?
Basic
29
3.4k
Dec 31
19%
chance

Derived from Saul suggesting this is plausible here: https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-there-be-a-manifest-in-the-nex

Resolves YES if there's an event after 20 June 2024 and starts before 1 Jan 2025 with all of the following properties:

  • more than 50 attendees

  • organized by staff at manifold or manifund or similarly adjacent folks (e.g. me if i don't work there would count)

  • has the name "manifest" or some portmanteau in the name (e.g. "manivibefest" or "lessfest" would count)

  • is at least nominally for prediction markets, forecasting, and other related topics (betting, mechanism design, impact markets, etc)

Get Ṁ600 play money

More related questions