Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between 12:00 AM EDT on Saturday, September 5, 2026, and 11:59 PM EDT on Monday, September 7, 2026, there is an active Tropical Storm Watch, Tropical Storm Warning, Hurricane Watch, or Hurricane Warning in effect for any portion of the Florida coastline (including the Florida Keys).

To qualify:

• The watch or warning must be officially issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or a local National Weather Service (NWS) office.

• The warning or watch must be associated with an officially named tropical storm or hurricane (i.e., a system designated with a name from the standard rotating list by the NHC/WMO). This includes systems that are named prior to or during the holiday weekend, or a Potential Tropical Cyclone active during the weekend that is subsequently named within 7 days of the weekend's end.

If no such coastal watch or warning is active during the specified timeframe, the market will resolve to NO. Inland-only flood watches, convective storm warnings, or systems that never obtain an official tropical name will not qualify for a YES resolution.

Background

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs in early September, making the Labor Day weekend historically prone to tropical activity. Florida has historically faced major storms during this holiday weekend, most notably the devastating 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. Because "threatening the coast" can be subjective, this market uses official NHC/NWS coastal watches and warnings as an objective proxy for a threat. Traders can monitor real-time tropical outlooks and active warning maps directly via the National Hurricane Center.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.