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MANIFOLD
Will my Manifold calibration be A or better on 2/4/24 at noon ET?
17
Ṁ330Ṁ1.9k
resolved Feb 4
Resolved
NO

I will not bet in this market. I will attempt to resolve this question at this exact time but may not be able to. If I cannot resolve at the exact correct time, I will accept captures of my calibration as of the closing time as proof of my calibration then. If no such captures are available, I will resolve based on my calibration the next time I check, and will try to check promptly.

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predictedNO

A-, resolves no.

@voodoo will resolve at the hour

predictedNO

A- is worse than A, and counts as NO, right?

@HenriThunberg Correct

Ugh, I made a bunch of arb bets that wrecked my calibration in the 80% YES bucket because one half of the arb was a multiple choice question :-(

You're doing good, the only thing that can really wreck it is if you change strategies and start making much larger bets. Which wouldn't be a mistake necessarily- you're probably being too cautious if you're manamaxxing. but if you are calibrationmaxxing then this is beautiful 😅

Sorry, forgot I said I wouldn’t bet in this market.