Will Google offer a paid subscription-based chatbot by April 2024?
66
453
1.1K
resolved Feb 9
Resolved
YES

Same resolution criteria as the below market, except that the subscription must be available by the end of March 2024.

Feb 8 EDIT:

This resolves as YES if 1) it is possible to sign up for a chatbot subscription, 2) that requires payment information at the time of signup, 3) and has a fixed-length trial period (even if the period extends past April 1st).

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ534
2Ṁ183
3Ṁ80
4Ṁ56
5Ṁ39
Sort by:

@RachelFreedman
It does satisfy that is "Offered" and it is "Paid subscription based" and was "By April 2024"

There is no further criteria you have stated, so all you can go off of is the question stated.
Was this your intention?

@SirCryptomind Yeah, I'll count this as a YES. I didn't think to specify what to do with trial periods in the original description, but if there's a fixed trial period and it requires payment information up front, that aligns with the spirit of the question.

bought Ṁ50 NO

OK this is a bit weird. You can subscribe now but the first two months are free, pushing the first day you'd pay into april

@wan ooh! I love a nice grey area!

@wan do you have to enter payment info to subscribe now?

@wan lol I don't think they have payments setup properly. If you start your subscription and immediately cancel it, you can't sign up again via normal gemini site. However, you can restore your trial in the same place you cancel it. @robm yes you do have to put in payment info, it will auto charge after 2 months.

@RachelFreedman Can we get a carification of how this will resolve?

I see two main routes.

  1. Resolves NO in April unless payments are required before April

  2. Resolves YES whenever a way to pay for the subscription is found, else NO

I bought my NO because I think 1 is the correct literal interpretation of your original market's description (I bought some of it earlier to partially arbitrage my bet in the other market). Both of these make sense to me because there are a couple definitive statements in your original market which are contradicting.

Resolves YES as soon as any paid subscription is publicly available, or NO if no subscription is available by the end of May 2024.

This one is leans to 2 because it says "publicly available".

If there are multiple tiers of access, resolves YES as long as at least one of them requires a paid subscription.

But this one to 1 because even if we found a way to pay for it, it wouldn't require a paid subscription. Also the Gemini website shows the free option as a separate tier.

I wrote this originally including a 3rd route where this resolves immediately but I didn't know how to support it.

@wan Oh boy, I naively thought I had covered my edge cases! I think that my original market description doesn't fully classify these scenarios. I'm going to make a ruling that this resolves as YES if 1) it is possible to sign up for a chatbot subscription, 2) that requires payment information at the time of signup, 3) and has a fixed-length trial period (even if the period extends past April 1st). I'll update both markets with this.

@SirCryptomind posted evidence of this above, so I plan to resolve YES.

@Magnus_ So release and confirmation of paid model confirm, just waiting on a date.

Rumours are that the new model will launch this week so I wonder if Paid will be there upon release or after launch.