Will there be 5 or more confirmed violent tornadoes (EF4 or EF5) occur in the USA during 2025?
Will there be 5 or more confirmed violent tornadoes (EF4 or EF5) occur in the USA during 2025?
9
100Ṁ334Dec 31
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve YES if there are 5 or more confirmed EF4 or EF5 tornadoes in the United States during the calendar year 2025. Resolution will be based on official National Weather Service storm surveys and the NOAA Storm Events Database.
As of January 29, 2025, there have been no EF4 or EF5 tornadoes reported in the United States for 2025, with the maximum rated tornado being an EF2.
Resolution Sources:
NOAA Storm Events Database: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/
National Weather Service Storm Surveys
Wikipedia's 2025 Tornado Season page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2025
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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