Background

Intel has been exploring the possibility of spinning off its foundry business as a separate entity. The company's interim co-CEOs have discussed this option publicly, and former Intel directors have advocated for a split, arguing it could be crucial for the company's survival. Intel has already taken initial steps by setting up its foundry business as an independent subsidiary with its own board.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if Intel announces a spin-off of its foundry business into a separate company by December 31, 2025. A spin-off means the foundry business becomes a distinct legal entity with separate ownership from Intel Corporation. The spin-off does not need to actually have fully completed by December 31.

The market will resolve NO if:

• Intel does not announce a spin-off by the end of 2025

• Intel pursues a different restructuring strategy (such as a partial spin-off where Intel maintains majority ownership)

Considerations

• Similar spin-offs in the semiconductor industry, like GlobalFoundries from AMD, have faced significant challenges

• The decision may be influenced by the strategic direction of Intel's new permanent CEO

• Current geopolitical tensions and government subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing could impact the likelihood of a spin-off

• The success of Intel's IDM 2.0 strategy and its ability to attract foundry customers may influence this decision