Will Demis Hassabis win a Nobel prize?
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196
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2033
27%
chance

At end point in his lifetime, but will resolve market (N/A) in 10 years time.

AlphaFold is a possible candidate? But there may be more in the pipeline.

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The author contribution statement [1] suggests a managing role, and possibly some idea generation. The Nobel Comittee is unlikely to award the proverbial "institute director", but would award the leading investigator - if there is scientific involvement. Do we know what his scientific contribution in the AlphaFold project were, beyond what is stated here?

[1] from the AlphaFold 1 nature paper

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03819-2

Contributions

J.J. and D.H. led the research. J.J., R.E., A. Pritzel, M.F., O.R., R.B., A. Potapenko, S.A.A.K., B.R.-P., J.A., M.P., T. Berghammer and O.V. developed the neural network architecture and training. T.G., A.Ž., K.T., R.B., A.B., R.E., A.J.B., A.C., S.N., R.J., D.R., M.Z. and S.B. developed the data, analytics and inference systems. D.H., K.K., P.K., C.M. and E.C. managed the research. T.G. led the technical platform. P.K., A.W.S., K.K., O.V., D.S., S.P. and T. Back contributed technical advice and ideas. M.S. created the BFD genomics database and provided technical assistance on HHBlits. D.H., R.E., A.W.S. and K.K. conceived the AlphaFold project. J.J., R.E. and A.W.S. conceived the end-to-end approach. J.J., A. Pritzel, O.R., A. Potapenko, R.E., M.F., T.G., K.T., C.M. and D.H. wrote the paper.

@CamillePerrin he has already shared prizes for the work with technical lead John Jumper e.g. $3m Breakthrough Prize.

But I think you raise a fair point