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MANIFOLD
Quroe becomes a Moderator? | USMV ≥ Ṁ1000 per share?
43
Ṁ1kṀ16k
resolved Sep 1
100%98.1%
Quroe becomes a Mod before September AND USMV < Ṁ1000 per share when he's Mod-ified.
1.4%
Quroe does NOT become a Mod before September.
0.5%
Quroe becomes a Mod before September AND USMV ≥ Ṁ1000 per share when he's Mod-ified.

Will I become a Moderator before September 2026 (Eastern Time)?

I will look at the Manifold GitHub Blame page to identify the exact minute I become a Moderator if I become one. I will also cross-check the trade ledger of the /Quroe/unspecified-stock-market-variable to identify the price of it at the exact minute that happens.

Note that I will perform the necessary time zone conversion on the Blame page to convert it to ET. Timestamps will be checked down to a minute of granularity on both the Blame page and the USMV. If the price of the USMV changes during the minute I become a Moderator, the last price identified during that minute in the trade ledger will count.

The creator has blocked themselves from betting in this market.
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@Quroe congrats on becoming mod!

Now, on to the next "will admin do something at the last second?" market.

/Quroe/will-manifold-have-a-mana-purchase

Congrats! You deserved it! (At least more than I did)

cgs

Quroe is a mod now??!!!!??!!??! Whaaaaaa

Oh shit i sold my huge mod position and then you got modified 😭

This market was fun to trade on and easy to profit on. Good job making this market.

Gg congrats

The USMV is under 1,000 mana per share. I think this settles this market? I don't see the badge yet, but this is the stated source of truth. I'll leave it open for a bit to figure out how this works.

Oh, it seems like I didn't recuse myself from trading. I'll do that now while we're in this state.

bought Ṁ1,250 YES

@Quroe Stefanie asked me to merge it in and I did think it would be very funny to launch the USMV to >1k but in the end I couldn't bring myself to do it

@Gen You would be initiating a somewhat risky game if you did that. It would have been funny, though.

@Quroe web & api are now deployed so you should have full mod functionality and the badge.

@Gen Yup! I see it! In the literal 11th hour, no less.

@Quroe congrats quroe!! happy for you and glad you can contribute :)

@bigyahu

@Quroe congrats

@Quroe can’t find anywhere to ask this, why do leagues close on the 2nd? will profit i make today count for the current league or the next league?

@bigyahu Yes, it will count. Leagues run from the 1st of the month until they finish, regardless of the previous end date.

The league end-time is randomised to minimise last second sniping and manipulation (i.e. push a market odds to 99% so that you have paper profits, a moment before the league ends)

@Gen ah i see, thanks

@Gen

Stefanie asked me to merge it in and I did think it would be very funny to launch the USMV to >1k but in the end I couldn't bring myself to do it

shoulda done it anyway

Leagues run from the 1st of the month until they finish, regardless of the previous end date.

I believe this was changed so that leagues no longer overlap at all.

@Quroe congrats! or my condolences! whichever 🔨

@Stralor Actually yes, Pat is right. October last year this changed, I had no idea!

start time === random season end time

@Quroe is the only person in a position to save us.

@Eliza Do you want me to make that number go up? Guess the user.

@Quroe I know exactly who that is

@Eliza It was at 90 a day or two ago! someone did a push (Ziddle?)

@Stralor I sold all my shares for a huge profit, this is just a market manipulation market all along.

@Stralor (yeah I made some steady progress over the weekend, plus some that were resolved but still in the queue)

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Ziddletwix guilty as charged