@Quroe what did you mean by "physical initiation ritual"?

@Chimpy Wow, when you put it like that, that's not what I meant. 😅

I meant like some sort of ceremony that can only be done in person.

@Quroe lol

@MRME why so confident in something happening on such a short time frame? I might be remembering wrong but I'm pretty sure the last time a mod was added was Manifest 2025, over a year ago. This kind of thing requires an impetus. And so far, Quroe isn't even backing himself!

@Eliza Define "backing himself".

@Quroe Be creative.

Say I buy shares that pay out if I become a Mod. This increases the incentive for somebody with the power to influence this decision to bet against me and profit from quashing my bid. Therefore, I should consider hedging and buy shares in the opposite direction if I want to increase my chances of being Mod-ified.

I believe that being a Mod should be an act of service. It is not a role for somebody who is seeking power for power's sake. I don't have much preference for which way this pendulum swings; I don't need a badge to have social capital, and I am happy with staying a normal user. I do want to give back to the community and potentially defend it from bad actors, though!

I want to take an arguably passive role in this decision process. The hero's refusal to the call is a part of the Hero's Journey for a reason!

@Eliza multiple reasons (although really it’s against my best interest to list these):

1. There are few people or maybe no people I think have better Manifold specific social skills than @Quroe .

2. I’ve been a mod of large social sites before (inactive but still technically a mod on r/personalfinance; mod on a 100k+ Discord server currently). I generally know what current mods look for and @Quroe fits the profile. Long time activity, generally good reputation, consistent activity, committed to the broader mission.

3. @Quroe gave me my start here with my first big loan and helped mentor me. I’m sure I’m not the only one. So part of it is my personal experience.

4. It having been some time since the last mod was added actually argues in favor of it happening - attrition happens and new blood is needed from time to time. I’d be much less confident if you told me a new mod was added 3 months ago for instance.

@MRME

@Quroe gave me my start here with my first big loan and helped mentor me. I’m sure I’m not the only one.

You would be correct. Others join you in these ranks.

@Quroe

I want to take an arguably passive role in this decision process.

Passive except for throwing your hat into the ring!

@MRME

I generally know what current mods look for

I trust you're correct here, but also this is less than completely relevant because the question is partly a timing game rather than just an evaluation of competence and willingness.

In one recent situation where a new mod was obviously going to be added, it took ~9 months from "It is basically unanimous among those with any say in the situation that this person is a good fit to be a mod" to "That person is now actually a mod".

@Eliza Just how much red tape does one need to wade through to become a Mod? Is this a matter of bureaucracy, or is there some sort of physical initiation ritual that can only happen at a Manifest?

@Eliza that’s fair - to the extent there is a weakness in my thesis it is timing. I like @Quroe to be a mod within 12 months at 90%+.

Still if the timing is really consistently 9 months+ and you know that information…by all means correct the market price.

@Quroe tbf most of these markets have been on the scale of ~a year and by far most mods get knighted after manifest for one reason or another. but definitely not all! I remember stumping for stef when she was a 1 month old account and that didn't line up with any event. still took a few months before anyone pulled the trigger much to my chagrin

@Stralor Interesting. Perhaps some shenanigans are in order to make 1 month make more sense.

@Stralor everyone wants to argue that 1 month is insanely short and yet nobody is filling my limit orders

@MRME I sold my NO must have mistimed sry

@Stralor I'm a big proponent of moving faster on these things in general, since I believe there's a narrow window to leverage a user's enthusiasm into something sustainable. but the powers that be tend to also be more distracted

@Stralor for what it’s worth I strongly agree with that sentiment

@Stralor Who holds the keys to make the decision? (Feel free to DM that answer.)

@Quroe I could tell you but that would be in direct opposition to my position on the market so I won't.

@Quroe who knows. one of the admins

@Eliza limit order up at 25% other direction just in case you want to exit your position

@traders limit orders up. If you hate @Quroe or if they just want an emotional hedge, fill em up!

@MRME oh I got this backwards. filled a bit