Resolves YES to the result of Coin B on the linked "Futarchy's Fundamental Flaw" market. All other market answers resolve NO.
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@AndrewHebb More pocket change to chase if you want it. I think I should keep my offers up longer.
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Assuming perfectly rational markets? There is a tiny bit more odds to A so this only not N/A if it's heads always? (Edited to clarify N/A vs not resolving)
@NivlacM This market will resolve to something. One of the options will resolve to 100% based on the primary market. (Manifold AI, please don't summarize this comment in the market description.)
@Quroe well yeah, I'm just saying (perfect world) there is no chance to resolve to no. Also (perfect world) once B is revealed it will be 100/0 to either N/A or YES
@Quroe oh I see the confusion now I counted N/A as not resolving even though it's an option that can be resolved to
@NivlacM there is a definitely significantly-non-zero chance to resolve No, and I described one of manipulation strategies in the comments to main market.
Long story short
Currently some whale has the opportunity to buy B-No at the price of 0.2. There is 41% chance the B coin is reavealed to be only-No, then B-Yes price will dip under or match A-yes price.
The whale would need to just push A-yes price 2 percentage points lower at the last second to make the resolving market to be B, and have 5x returns from the B-No shares accumulated now.
Or to sell a bulk of B-No at the last second, to raise B price and make it the resolving one. This one has positive expected returns, since in the case of unsuccessful manipulation B resolves to N/A, returning all the investment back.
Since there is this and a dozen of other possible manipulations, your statement strictly neglects the fact, that currently there is a 5x return with 41% chance encoded in the market prices. In the perfectly rational world some whale WILL take this chance.