Resolves YES to the result of Coin A on the linked "Futarchy's Fundamental Flaw" market. All other market answers resolve NO.
Market links:
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ166 | |
| 2 | αΉ95 | |
| 3 | αΉ36 | |
| 4 | αΉ33 | |
| 5 | αΉ33 |
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@NivlacM I think the liquidity and volume are also core variables at play. I think you've made things spicy.
@NivlacM For example, imagine there was a million mana in liquidity on this market, but only a trickle on the other coin market and the main market.
There sure would be incentive to force coin A to resolve to the shareholder interests here.
@NivlacM I had hypothesized that these derivative markets would cure the odds on the main market to their true theoretical percentages by creating an arbitrage outlet, but I am surprised to see that the markets are rejecting my mental simulation.
@Quroe I think that once the coin flips, it will be too expensive for a whale to manipulate the market.
If coin B is heads only, then limit orders on A-No at 80% and B-Yes at 81% are both +EV for whoever is trying to get B to resolve YES, and this is true even if a whale successfully manipulates the final probabilities.
If coin B is tails only, then limit orders on A-Yes at 31% and B-No at 30% are both +EV for whoever is trying to get B to N/A, and this is true even if a whale successfully manipulates the final probabilities.
I don't think that the liquidity here changes that too much -- any manipulating whales have to make bets that are guaranteed to be -EV in the hopes of getting a profit elsewhere.
It seems like if we follow the claimed behavior in the original blog post, then there is a 41% chance that B is always-No, and therefore the market will see too it that A resolves, and there is then a 60% chance that A resolves Yes, so this market should be 0.6*0.41 = 24.6% YES, 0.4*0.41=16.4% NO, and 41% N/A (because the market will see to it that B resolves if B is always-Yes).
@Nick6d8e Fair heads up, I realized a flaw in the description when I copied and pasted the description. If you thought this was the coin B market, I'll refund you.
@Quroe I think I understand correctly - this market is what is going to happen to coin A. I might be wrong about my reasoning (or wrong about believing the original blog post's reasoning), but I did intend to bet that there is a 24.6% chance that the market for coin A will resolve YES.
@Nick6d8e Excellent. I was having issues with the links presenting correctly, and the description was wrong here for a few minutes.
@Nick6d8e Ah, I see that I made a mistake in my post - I should have said 59% N/A (on the grounds that A should resolve N/A when B is revealed to be always-Yes)