Will a gatekeeper be deployed in the real world by EoY 2025? [ARIA Safeguarded Programme]
6
100Ṁ125
2026
66%
chance

ARIA's Safeguarded AI programme is based on davidad's programme thesis, an ambitious worldview about what could make extremely powerful AI go well. ARIA aims to disperse £59m (as of this writing) to accomplish these ambitions.

https://www.aria.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ARIA-Safeguarded-AI-Programme-Thesis-V1.pdf

The Safeguarded AI agenda consists of world modeling and proof certificates to create gatekeepers, quantitative computations which simulate an action being taken and only pass it along to meatspace if it is safe up to a given threshold.

"the real world" means as a quality assurance procedure in an actual industry with actual customers.

Does not resolve yes if something seems kinda like a gatekeeper but makes no reference to the ARIA programme.

Does not resolve yes if rumors are circulating about a project behind closed doors, so it must be from a company that's reasonably public. Do comment if you think it's a viable strategy but will likely only be deployed in secret military contexts.

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