An org founded via an FTX Future Fund grant has headcount >= 15 by December 31st 2022
#Please Resolve
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resolved Feb 15
Resolved
NO
"Resolving org must: - Not have existed before receiving FTX Future Fund grant - Provide enough information about headcount _publically_ to ascertain whether they resolve this market Members of the group of 15+ employees may: - be contractors, but ""defactor fulltime"" as subjectively ascertained by public information - be part time, but listed directly on website as being a member of the org - may NOT be listed as ""friends, collaborators, advisors"" If I can't find information on such an org by december 31st, market resolves to NO. Otherwise, YES. " May 19, 5:31pm: regarding "existed", which was underdefined initially. I think an org "exists" when at least one of "it has a website", "it is formally incorporated in some country", or "has received or paid money". I think if Alice writes on discord "me and Bob are collaborating" in january, and it circulates as a rumor until June when they publish their website, we say that from january to june their org did _not_ exist. Therefore, in this scenario if Alice and Bob's org received FTX funding anytime between february and may, and then went on to get headcount 15 by market close, I would resolve to YES. Note that if say Alice contracts Caleb to do exploratory market research on her Bob collaboration, but no one knows but Alice, Caleb, and Bob, we presumably can't know that the org existed. So if that happened with Alice and Bob's org _before_ they received their FTX grant, and they got to headcount 15 by market close, I would resolve to YES.
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I don't know of any counterexample to resolve this YES. going NO.

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Hrm I feel like "Not have existed before receiving FTX Future Fund grant" is kind of a weird criteria that cuts out a lot of potential viable orgs -- eg would you say the org for Manifold (me/James/Stephen) existed before we received the ACX grant? And especially to get to 15+ employees, that's a lot! If Manifold gets to 15 FTE employees within a year of formation that'd be a bit (though not massively) surprisingly, and I think we're unusually high-growth
@Austin > eg would you say the org for Manifold (me/James/Stephen) existed before we received the ACX grant? Good point, I will do some thought and append clarification to "exist". Right now I'm leaning toward the idea that a few chaps can iterate on and make progress on something somewhat in the shadows without qualifying as "existing". Manifold would be disqualified under any reasonable definition tho, to my understanding because the ACX grant predates the FTX grant.

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