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@Quillist Why did this market resolve YES? Isn’t MEHCQ just the same common stock trading OTC after delisting? No distribution has happened. I don’t think that should count as “recovering value”?

@Simon74fe I was swayed by ChatGPT: https://chatgpt.com/share/69587db6-5434-8013-8a40-7eb74dd3cd31

Specifically >>

• The company is no longer operating as the old publicly-traded 23andMe Holding Co. It effectively exited Chapter 11 through the asset sale and reorganization. Wikipedia

• The business now continues under new ownership/structure (TTAM Research Institute) rather than the original corporate entity that filed for bankruptcy.

@Quillist I don’t think "bankruptcy business continues after restructuring” should count as shareholders recovering value. No distribution to common equity has happened yet. Could you ask ChatGPT directly what they think, whether common shareholders have actually recovered any value from the bankruptcy yet?

@Simon74fe https://chatgpt.com/share/6958e336-d8c4-8013-bbfc-1e23c470e4dd
On a technicality the common stock owners were given some contribution ( the Class B Plan Administration Trust Interest).
You do have a valid point though, in that it probably would have been a more spiritually aligned choice to have extended this market to the Class B Plan Administration Trust Interest payout.

I'll compose some type of mana loss compensation for this ruling if it turns out that Class B Plan Administration Trust yielded nothing to common stock owners

@Quillist Yes, I think that’s the issue. A Class B Plan Administration Trust Interest is just a placeholder. If the mere issuance of a trust interest counts as recovery, then almost any wiped-out equity would resolve YES on a technicality.

I’d still argue this market should reopen and wait until the trust actually pays out >$0 (or is confirmed worthless)

@Simon74fe I don't see any way to reopen markets..?

@Quillist You can ask @mods and they will do it

As a 23andMe shareholder, we already recovered value--this should resolve yes.

No reason to think this won't get its end date extended, but would appreciate clarification from @Quillist !

@Panfilo extended

They already did: common shareholders now have shares of 23andMe Holding Co (OTCMKTS: MEHCQ)

From Claude: That 60% prediction market for 23andMe shareholders getting anything? Way too optimistic. I'd put it at 15-20% tops.

Look at the math: $256M sale price to Regeneron versus $100-500M in liabilities, plus the $35M DIP financing that gets paid first, plus all the bankruptcy admin costs (which are notoriously expensive). Shareholders only get paid after everyone else, and there's almost certainly not enough to go around. The company burned through cash rapidly (down to $79M from $216M in just 9 months), has that $30M data breach settlement hanging over it, and expensive real estate leases they're trying to escape. Their Q3 FY2025 report showed a $26.8M net loss on $60.3M revenue, and management explicitly stated there was "substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern."

Chapter 11 bankruptcy follows a strict payment priority - secured creditors, administrative expenses, unsecured creditors, preferred shareholders, and common shareholders dead last. The Section 363 sale process is designed to maximize value for creditors, not shareholders. When the deal closes in Q3 2025, expect the proceeds to be distributed according to this waterfall, with likely nothing left for equity.

The only reason I'm not saying 5% is that companies sometimes throw shareholders a bone (like nearly worthless warrants) just to avoid the hassle of shareholder lawsuits. Plus Wojcicki remains on the board, and Regeneron might want to maintain goodwill with customers who are also shareholders. Also, 23andMe has no debt on its balance sheet, which is actually a positive factor - though they've got plenty of other liabilities.

But realistically, common shareholders are likely getting pennies at best, and most likely nothing at all. The stock was trading under $20M market cap before bankruptcy for good reason - the market had already priced in the equity being essentially worthless. Plus, the $400M Lemonaid acquisition in 2021 was a massive cash drain that failed to deliver hoped-for diversification. Anyone betting on significant shareholder recovery is either uninformed about bankruptcy mechanics or extremely optimistic about the actual liability figures.