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MANIFOLD
Biden is the last Democratic president?
21
Ṁ1kṀ4.1k
2040
11%
chance

  • Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves to YES if any of the following occur:

    • The US dissolves or a major separation event takes place.

    • The world ends.

    • The US chief executive is no longer titled "President."

    • At market close, the Democratic Party has <5% support among American voters.

    • Creator notes there may be other conditions that also qualify.

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How does this ever resolve to yes?

@AlanTennant
1) US dissolves or some major separation event takes place
2) The world ends
3) Chief exec of US is no longer a President, but some other title
4) On market closing if the democratic party has < 5% support amongst the American voters it will be considered YES
There could be other conditions that would satisfy that are not included.

@Quillist So realistically 1 or 3, but far more 3 than 1, and is still pretty unlikely. Let's try … 5 – long term dictatorship/feudalism.

On the edge of possibility is 6 – A better party becomes 1st/2nd place, or 7 – USA switches from first past the post without proportional representation to a more sensible election system such as instant runoff with proportional representation.