100% tariff on China by end of November?
21
1kṀ4224
Nov 30
10%
chance

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The tariff must be implemented (not just announced) to count. If the tariff is implemented but then rolled back in November, it still counts for resolution.

  • Update 2025-10-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve based on whatever definition Trump's public threat gravitates towards, rather than a specific technical definition of tariff coverage (e.g., all products vs. single product vs. trade-weighted average).

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What if it's announced and not implemented or rolled back by November

@BenM It has to be implemented. If it rolls back on Nov, it still counts

On all products? Any single product? Trade weighted average tariff over all products?

@Fion I wish I could be more specific here.. This market is in response to Trump's public threat. Whatever that definition gravitates towards will be what this market is determined by

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