See: The Keys to the White House - Wikipedia
Resolves:
N/A if Allan Lichtman does not make a prediction
YES if Allan Lichtman makes a prediction and it turns out to be correct
NO if Allan Lichtman makes a prediction and it turns out to be incorrect
1,000
3.00@nikki This is bullshit. He predicts the winner not the popular vote. Same for 2016 for example, where he said Trump would win and Trump lost the popular vote and won the election.
It seems The Keys to the White House is predicting a Biden win. Six or more false keys are needed for Biden to lose, and it looks like around 4 or 5 are false right now.
From a recent April 30th CNN interview, Lichtman says:
Biden loses keys:
1. Midterm Elections
12. Incumbent Charisma
with there being 4 unsure keys:
4. Third Party (depends on if RFK polls over 10% when it's closer to the election)
8. Social Unrest (Lichtman says the current college protests are not enough, they'd probably have to get much larger)
10. Foreign/military failure (previously stated leans false)
11. Foreign/military success (previously stated leans false)
This implies both that all other keys are likely true, and that no event prior to the interview (Afghanistan withdrawal/Ukraine) was significant enough for him to decisively state that any of those 4 unsure keys are false.
Lichtman says he expects to make his prediction in early August.
From the wikipedia article (my comments in italics):
The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. False
No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Seems True
Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. True
No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Depends on how the Republican primary plays out
Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TBD
Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. GDP went from $16T to $21T from 2012 to 2020, a 31% increase, or 3.46% annually. GDP in 2022 was $25T, which is 9% annualized, so I guess this is close to True.
Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Not sure what qualifies as major
No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. True
No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. True
No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False, I guess, due to criticism of the Afghanistan pull-out
Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False.
Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. False.
Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Depends on challenger, I guess Trump is charismatic but DeSantis not.
Score is somewhere between 5 and 9 true.
@BoltonBailey Noting how few candidates have received charisma checks, Trump has not achieved charisma. The first point is his minority popular vote acquired in 2 elections. Throughout nationally polling from 2016 on, he's never commanded a favorability majority. 13 will be true for Biden on his challenger (a check for Biden) and false on 12 for his charisma for the incumbent.
5 & 6 are headed for true. Though due to Powell's actions and the Fed, Biden benefits.
On the political keys: 1 is false. 2 & 3 are true. 4 is contingent on a 3rd party likely equaling or exceeding 5% of the popular vote. 4 could be true or false.
8 & 9 are going into 2024 as true. Lichtman has 7 as true due to Bilateral bills becoming law (4) and the Infrastucture Bill becoming law.
8 are true with one unknown through 11 keys.
Military/Foreign Policy is left. 10 and 11 are not necessarily both false. Well, 11 is. 10 was not handled (Afghanistan) from Bush through Trump. Did Biden deal with it early enough as a true or is it false? I'll leave Lichtman to evaluate 10. I suppose Biden could've remained passing on embedded troops for 4 more years. If that framework exists, he is false while the wait would've made it true. Odd. That's why I wait for Lichtman to explain his reasoning.
Right now, Biden has 3 false, 8 true and 2 unknown. This is the reasoning Lichtman uses in his belief Biden has tailwinds in his favor. All that could change if Biden does not run. Good point.
@DavidPlatts I've read the text as if it were required university reading, highlighting and notes included. Wikipedia does not do the text justice.
@DavidPlatts Yes, Lichtman said in 2020 that Trump was uncharismatic, I dunno about that assessment, Trump certainly inspires devotion in some of his constituents but this resolves on what Lichtman says.