As simple as that: if Donald Trump will die before 01/01/2025 resolves YES
Donald Trump lives on: resolves NO
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@angeluspolitian I think Trump's head would explode if he had to pretend to be dead. He needs the attention from social media...
@evergreenemily So if he pretended to die, he would actually die, therefore we don't need to consider this scenario.
@angeluspolitian What if his death is unconfirmed and he's succeeded by a sequence of impostors ruling in his name, known to later history as False Donald I through False Donald IV?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
4.9% death chance for 77 year old male, 5.4% for 78 year old male.
That amounts to 10.3% chance in two years, and this is a year and a half or a little less, so, multiplying by 3/4, you get 7.7%.
@Dave_9000ish I think his bad health cancels out with the fact that he has access to the best medical treatments (being rich and influential).