Is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alive?

Question

Resolves YES if clear and convincing evidence emerges this year that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was alive at exactly 5 PM ET on 3/3/2026.

Resolves NO if clear and convincing evidence emerges this year that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was dead at exactly 5 PM ET on 3/3/2026.

Resolves 50-50 if we reach the new year without a resolution.

I will rely on mainstream journalistic and/or scholarly sources and common sense.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 89% chance (4 traders, as of Mar 4, 2026).

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