MANIFOLD
Is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alive?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ110
Dec 31
78%
chance

Resolves YES if clear and convincing evidence emerges this year that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was alive at exactly 5 PM ET on 3/3/2026.

Resolves NO if clear and convincing evidence emerges this year that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was dead at exactly 5 PM ET on 3/3/2026.

Resolves 50-50 if we reach the new year without a resolution.

I will rely on mainstream journalistic and/or scholarly sources and common sense.

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