Based on: https://foxchapelresearch.substack.com/p/i-think-substrate-is-fraudulent-part

Resolves based on my opinion on whether this is a scam or not.

If the founder is convicted for fraud, resolves YES; other scammy-type stuff like the company going out of business and not paying creditors may tip me in favor of a YES resolution.

If the company starts selling chips and appears to be a totally normal company, resolves NO.

This market is subjective, so I will not be betting on it. Resolves NO in five years, unless stuff happens which would indicate YES.