Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?
Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans are orbiting the moon?
15
1kṀ428Jan 1
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if both are elected officials
Resolves 50% if only one is
Resolves No if Xi Jinping and Putin are no longer elected officials
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Neither of them are meaningfully elected. Sham "elections" are not.
@Multicore The General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party is elected by delegates during the National Congress. Peasants don't get a vote.
@No_ones_ghost Orbit is good enough for this one. Changed the title to show that and made another market for walking on Moon: here
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when Humans walk on the moon?
67% chance
Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when US has Woman president?
23% chance
Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials when the US has a new President?
92% chance
Will Xi Jinping and Putin still be elected officials after the the next time an Incumbent is elected as president in US?
36% chance
Will Putin still be in power when Xi Jinping leaves power?
46% chance
Will Vladimir Putin and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2025?
58% chance
Who will be U.S. President before a person next sets foot on the Moon?
Will Vladimir Putin outlive Xi Jinping?
33% chance
Will Vladimir Putin stop being the leader of Russia before Xi Jinping stops being the leader of China?
69% chance
Will Vladimir Putin and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2028?
39% chance