The capital of Equatorial Guinea is currently Malabo on the island of Bioko, but they are building a new capital on mainland Africa at Ciudad de la Paz. They began moving their headquarters there in 2017, but were building it earlier. I am nowhere near an expert on this topic, so please kindly inform me if I should make any changes, such as if it would be better to add/remove some answer choies. I will resolve to "Never" if there is an official statement from Equatorial Guinea saying that they have scrapped the plan. I will first wait a few weeks if such a statement comes out. If the statement is rescinded after I resolve the market, I will NOT unresolve it. I will add new answer choices after 2028 if I don't forget.
I will resolve the market to YES if both of the following conditions are met:
Equatorial Guinea officially declares that its capital is now Ciudad de la Paz
The Senate and Parliament of the Equatorial Guinean government relocate to Ciudad de la Paz, or an otherwise large enough amount of the government moves (this is obviously subject to opinion, but I'll follow the consensus of Manifold users)
Years are deliniated by midnight between December 31st and January 1st, using Equatorial Guinea's time zone (GMT+1).
1,000You have a couple options, with a question like this.
You could use the Netherlands option. The King of the Netherlands lives in The Hague. The Dutch Parliament meets in The Hague. The Dutch Government operates out of The Hague. The country's Supreme Court sits in The Hague. All embassies sent to the country are in The Hague.
But the capital is not The Hague, it is Amsterdam. Why? Because the Constitution says so.
However, African countries have limited state capabilities, and they are fond of pompous, grandiose declarations that in practice amount to nothing.
The Ivory Coast pompously announced they were moving their capital from Abidjan to Yamoussoukro (they didn't).
Benin pompously announced they were moving their capital from Cotonou to Porto-Novo (they didn't).
Tanzania pompously announced they were moving their capital from Dar es Salaam to Dodoma (they didn't)
One African country that made such a pompous declaration and actually went through with it was Nigeria. So maybe you can check when the organs of government actually move rather than the pompous declaration.
@BrunoParga Thanks for the information! After doing some research, I think I'll decide to resolve the market only if Equatorial Guinea declares it's moving the capital and a considerable portion of the government (I'll say Senate and Parliament; the president already doesn't live in Malabo) moves to the new city. Particularly, I won't resolve if they say they moved the capital but don't actually move anything (or in the more unlikely scenario, they move the government but don't declare a new capital; in this case I won't resolve just because determining when enough of the government has moved is hard to define).
This market is much harder to decide on than I expected, since information on the politics of Equatorial Guinea is scarce on the internet as far as I'm aware, though I also don't want to pour too much time into this. I'm pretty sure that, so far, they've just built some flash glass towers in the new city and moved the parliament there for a few months back in 2017, but all the embassies and most of the government is still in Malabo.