I mean, obviously this is great, but there is a little bit of me that's sad that my market-prediction skills that I've been honing over the past few months are now almost worthless again. I've got a bunch of "sell" orders that I need to go and remove!

@Fion there's a definite feeling that "the game got easy again" but the upside of long term predictions making sense feels worth it.

@ProjectVictory Yeah, definitely worth it. Also, if I'm going to be using my Manifold addiction to practice a skill, it's probably more valuable to practice actual prediction skill rather than market-prediction skills.

Resolves Yes due to mana loans returning.

It changed

Feel free to arbitrage:

1 month left. Will we get loans?

@ProjectVictory I am not sure how we could possibly get loans given that sweepstakes are a thing now.

@BrunoParga mana and sweepcash are separate, so I don't see a problem. There were plans to return mana loans after election but I haven't heard anything about it for a while.

@ProjectVictory can't people convert mana into sweepcash? I wouldn't know, I'm a filthy foreigner.

@BrunoParga me too. But as far as I know - no, completely different systems now.

@ProjectVictory makes sense.

Separately, there was the 90% cut in streak bonuses not too long ago. If they were thinking of reinstating loans, the might have been a sort of counterpart to that; but given the silence about loans I think what this means it's just that they don't want to keep expanding the mana supply, regardless of 🧹💵.

@traders Note about recent manifold changes: making one or more long-term markets as "sweepstakes" will not resolve this Yes. Must be a systematic solution affecting trading on most markets.

The market has been at 50% for a month now.

this market is too long-term for us to have any incentive to correct it

Ironic 😅

hehe

What's the deadline for Manifold to introduce such an incentive before you resolve NO?

@gregrosent Same as market close, end of calendar year (actual introduction, not announcement).

In comparison with short-term markets, long-term ones are not ɪ ᴍ ᴘ ᴀ ᴄ ᴛ ғ ᴜ ʟ. They don't generate "engagement"; this is not a prediction market website, it's a "user-generated content platform" and those don't deal in long-term anything.

Relative to short-term markets, it makes much less sense to spam long-term ones, like the same person posting the same thing every single day asking "what will be today's value of variable X?".

Long-term markets are also not very good for the absolute #1 favorite theme of the Manifold community, which is itself and its own opinions. They're not suitable for whalebait or for personal markets like the ass-eating one (long-term options notwithstanding). They don't really affect much the monthly contest and leagues and tiers and promotions and relegations and partners. They sure as hell don't suit a cash prize platform.

In sum: Manifold is decidedly focused on the short term; the optimal market duration is probably something between a day and a week, except for very big events like the US presidential election.

Loans were an anomaly, they didn't really go well with the decided short-term focus of this platform, so they had to go.