When will doomsday clock go back (time to midnight increased)?
7
Ṁ1kṀ2292030
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
2030
43%
2029
41%
2028
35%
2027
Resolution criteria
The Doomsday Clock is assessed in January of each year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The market resolves YES for a given year if the time to midnight increases from the previous year's setting. Otherwise the year resolves NO. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Background
As of January 27, 2026, the Clock was set to 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to midnight since its inception in 1947. The clock has been set backward eight times and forward 19 times in its history. The farthest time from midnight was 17 minutes in 1991, which occurred after the United States and the Soviet Union signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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