Will "Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?" resolve via "official resolution"?
11
230Ṁ1351
resolved Nov 2
Resolved
YES

The resolution criteria for "Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?" ("Snake Eyes") state:

For an official resolution we'll write up a proof (or "proof") that the answer is 1/36 and a proof that the answer is ~1/2 (really anything greater than 1/36 would be fine) and then recruit some mathematician(s) to make an independent judgment on which is correct. Or maybe we'll just reach consensus in the comments?

As soon as "Snake Eyes" is resolved, this market will

  • resolve Yes if it is undisputed that at least one mathematician was recruited and made an independent judgement according to which "Snake Eyes" resolved

  • resolve No if "Snake Eyes" did not resolve by "official resolution", but by any other means, including consensus in the comments

If "Snake Eyes" is not resolved by 00:52:18 on 1/1/36, this resolves No.

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