Will Remco Evenopoel finish the 2023 Vuelta a Espana
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Base rate for top-5 GC candidates to finish a grand tour is probably somewhere like 80-90%? I don't know that I'm going to do a lot of research on this one but it's a starting point at least.
Can't compare top tier GC candidates to mid-tier or non-GC because their prep and physical condition is usually in a slightly separate category of "you are on the limit".