Resolution Criteria:
Definition of "Renamed":
The Gulf of Mexico will be considered "renamed" if its official name, as recognized by the United States federal government, is changed to a name different from "Gulf of Mexico."Sources of Resolution:
Resolution will rely on official government documents, such as:A formal proclamation or executive order from the President.
Legislative action passed by Congress and signed into law by the President.
Official updates to United States Geological Survey (USGS) or Department of the Interior documentation reflecting the new name.
Clarity of Change:
The new name must be explicitly declared as the official name of the body of water currently known as the Gulf of Mexico.
Informal, colloquial, or symbolic references (e.g., public nicknames, marketing campaigns) will not count.
Disqualification:
Proposals, discussions, or attempts to rename the Gulf of Mexico that do not result in a finalized change will not resolve as a "Yes."
Changes recognized only by non-U.S. entities, international organizations, or foreign governments will not count unless also formally adopted by the U.S. government.
Resolution:
YES: If the Gulf of Mexico is officially renamed by the U.S. federal government during the Trump presidency.
NO: If no such renaming occurs by the end of the Trump presidency.
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@TiredCliche or rather, to stick with your metaphor, if I rename the "Benjamin Library" to the "Forrest Library" but leave the "Schmidt Wing" intact without renaming it, I have indeed renamed the Benjamin Library.
@benshindel Yes. Look at where the seaward boundary is.
I don't understand how you could call this area "75%" of the entire gulf.
This can resolve YES @strutheo
The Polymarket question is at 100.0
https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-rename-the?tid=1737464492762
Metaculus also resolved YES.
@strutheo hahahahah so true. I think your name was on so many of the "Related markets" on the right side of the page that I subconsciously assumed
Relevant text of the EO:
"rename as the “Gulf of America” the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico."
So, it's not the whole Gulf. Now it's the Gulf of America until the Mexican border, where it's the Gulf of Mexico.
Give me all of your mana.
@TiredCliche I think that’s a really silly technicality and is pretty irrelevant and against both the spirit and the letter of this question. It’s also a majority of the actual area of the Gulf of Mexico.
@TiredCliche You make a good point here, let me think it over a little bit. There is a lot to consider.
@benshindel But the question wasn't "Will he rename most of the gulf of Mexico?"
The market description says "The new name must be explicitly declared as the official name of the body of water currently known as the Gulf of Mexico." And that isn't what happened in the EO. He only renamed part of it. He could have renamed the whole thing, but he did not.
@Predictor Will this market be using a standard or source of truth to resolve to? Or are we going by your vibe check?