Submit your own! Please remember to phrase your answer in the form of a question.
Each question resolves YES if there is credible evidence it happens, NO if it doesn’t happen by the end of Trump’s second term, NA if there is no reasonable way to verify.
Update 2025-28-01 (PST): - YES resolves if there is credible evidence that state recognition of the name change is compelled by a perception by the state government that not doing so would result in the withholding of federal funds. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is about to resolve the market. See the linked comment for more details.
1,000People are also trading
not likely senate will approve but here it is… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-renaming-gulf-of-mexico-gulf-of-america-house-vote/
being considered but hasn’t happened yet
https://www.texastribune.org/2025/04/24/texas-gulf-of-america-name-change/
Arkansas legislature ‘Gulf of America’ resolution dies in House committee
I bet NO here because what Google actually said is: we will make this change when GNIS makes this change. The headlines make that sound like it's a done deal, but GNIS, which is maintained by USGS, follows the guidance of the Foreign Names Committee of the US Board of Geographic Names. They have in no way signaled that they are going to support this change. In fact, opposite:
> There are major roadblocks to renaming the Gulf of Mexico, according to Leo Dillon, the former chair of the Foreign Names Committee. He said that the committee’s procedures allow only one name for high seas, and it usually reflects the most commonly used name.
It's possible these folks will cave to political pressure, but keep in mind these are geographers, not politicians. They don't make a lot of money, and they have a professional stake in making decisions like this rationally, not politically. Remember the last time around when Trump tangled with librarians? My bet is that unless these folks are truly circumvented, GNIS will not change.
@BlueDragon Ooo, now this one could get interesting. Let's clarify. If he alludes to it, but doesn't say it directly (like a mob boss saying something like, "That's some nice federal aid you've got there. It would be a shame if you didn't do what I'm asking"), would that count?
@Quroe good question, a little tough to verify if the threat isn’t explicit. I’ll count any evidence that state recognition of the name change is compelled by a perception by a state government that not doing so would result in the withholding of federal funds. Red states along the coast will likely embrace the change, in fact Florida already has: https://www.wusf.org/politics-issues/2025-01-22/along-gulf-coast-trump-plan-gulf-of-america-touches-residents-pride