In October 2021, the Polish Constitutional Court, whose majority of judges are loyal to the sitting government's party (Law and Justice Party, or PiS), rejected the European Union's primacy over national legislation. The decision is a direct challenge to European unity, and also the first time a member country declares not only to have sovereignty over the bloc but also that its national treaties are incompatible with the European Union's.

The stance made Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, speak out warning that the country could face sanctions. The escalation of tension between the Polish government and the European Union has made the term "Polexit", which means the country's exit from the European Union, become popular, to the point that the country's main opposition leader, Donald Tusk, called for protests in defense of Poland's permanence in the bloc of 27 countries.

If Poland leaves the European Union by the end of 2023, this market will resolve to "Yes".