Will OpenAI’s DALL-E be made commercially available by the end of 2022?

Ṁ17K

Ṁ102

resolved Aug 18

Resolved

YES

ALL

OpenAI trained a neural network called DALL-E to create images from text captions for an unseen number of concepts expressible in natural language. The company used the GPT-3 artificial intelligence as the groundwork for DALL-E’s development. Currently, OpenAI focuses only on the development of research projects, but such a powerful neural network could be disruptive if used for commercial purposes in the future. If DALL-E (or any similar synthetic image creation technology from OpenAI) is made available commercially by December 31, 2022, even under a limited program, this market will resolve to Yes.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ958
2		Ṁ74
3		Ṁ63
4		Ṁ16
5		Ṁ12

23 Comments

34 Holders

206 Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

@Predictor, please resolve this market!

predicted YES

@SG My apologies, I have forgotten. But now I have resolve it.

predicted YES

What happens if the market creator just doesn't resolve the market, in cases where the correct resolution is obvious?

@TedSuzman Lots of discussion here: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-set-abandoned-questio

predicted NO

I think market's creators should be able to indicate whether their market resolves according to the community or according to themselves.

predicted YES

@Predictor ping ping, can resolve this btw!

bought Ṁ6 of NO

still not sure what makes people SO confident, for now it is beta. I would but it at say 98%

@M Well, the beta announcement says: > Starting today, users get full usage rights to commercialize the images they create with DALL·E, including the right to reprint, sell, and merchandise. This includes images they generated during the research preview. ... so arguably this market could be resolved YES already.

predicted NO

@Sjlver So waitlist and limited availability is considered irrelevant? And making is available to a single person who would be allowed commercial use also would resolve as yes?

predicted NO

Oh, I see "even under a limited program"

predicted YES

@Sjlver That seems like a stretch. I'm assuming resolution is waiting on the actual rollout of the credit program.

predicted YES

@horse it is already rolled out

bought Ṁ1 of NO

more than 1:989 chance of mistaken resolving

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Arrgh! another case of unintentional betting due to accidentally touching the arrow when scrolling through the list of Markets

Some real arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/bcongdon/will-i-get-access-to-dalle-2-in-202

bought Ṁ10 of YES

https://openai.com/blog/dall-e-now-available-in-beta/

Just to be clear: Are you talking about DALL-E 1 or 2, or either?

predicted NO

@Sjlver The description says "DALL-E (or any similar synthetic image creation technology from OpenAI)", so I guess either 1 or 2 counts

predicted NO

Has this been announced? If not, why has anyone bid it up to 99.7%?

@NcyRocks I just sold everything I had.

predicted NO

Why is it so high? GPT-3 took a long time and D2 seems harder.

predicted NO

@MP I would buy for lower, but the fact that someone put a large limit order around 90% makes me suspicious of inside info. But I have no clue

bought Ṁ20 of YES

GPT-3 is commercially available, and they show off the results of people with early access pretty heavily on their social media (@openaidalle), so I suspect they want to sell access eventually. It seems like their demo rollout has been fairly slow though, so 2022 might be too soon.