Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2023?
resolved Nov 22

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JonWharf avatar
Jon Wharfpredicted NO

Is it a satellite, or is it just dead orbital mass? No signals have been detected.

Mqrius avatar
Mqriuspredicted YES

@JonWharf Depends on the definition of satellite you're using. The moon is often described as a satellite of Earth, so a dead mass in orbit could count.

JonWharf avatar
Jon Wharfpredicted NO

@Mqrius Generally e.g. dead rocket stages aren't regarded as satellites in normal discussions.

Mqrius avatar
Mqriuspredicted YES

@JonWharf Yeah fair enough. Not sure we'll get more details on these objects any time soon though

Mqrius avatar
Mqriusbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Resolves Yes

jks avatar
JKSbought Ṁ5 of NO

In my mind, "satellite" implies that the probe be successfully placed into orbit. Does my assumption match your interpretation, and if so, how does this market resolve if it is found that DPRK's probe did not orbit the Earth at least once?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO

@jks You can have a geostationary satellite.

jks avatar
JKSpredicted NO

@BTE This is true. In the inertial reference frame geostationary satellites still orbit the Earth, once every 24 hours.

jks avatar
JKSpredicted NO

My question has more to do with the fact that the DPRK claimed to have put a satellite into orbit, but it has yet to be verified by other parties. How are we defining "successfully" in the question? In the event that the satellite is not verified by other parties, does their claim of success mean success, or are we defining success off of whether or not it actually achieved orbit?

VAPOR avatar

DPRK space agency has a deal with Russia to put an NK cosmonaut into space, so maybe...