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@DavidBolin Note that the probability of death is not equally distributed, but lower at the start of the range.

@DavidBolin pretty sure age is one factor in actuary (IE, smoking status, medical tests such as blood and urine, previous conditions, etc - Source I am a dumb dumb that works in insurance).

That being said, it is probably around 1-.5% he will die in that time. But for 10 mana, I'm willing to take that bet.

@Haws Pretty sure once you get to that age, other factors become less and less relevant.

@Predictor It seems like market like this should probably resolve one day early in case it is announced Jimmy Carter is still alive (very common).

https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-by-bcef2ff6695c
arbitrage

@asmith https://manifold.markets/Cat/will-jimmy-carter-be-alive-on-my-bi

I'd be financially irresponsible to not bet no.

But the risk due to Jimmy's strong will to live is palpable.

@Haws It is irresponsible to bet that someone is going to die in the next 9 days at a probability of 6%.

@DavidBolin Still a 50/50 chance.

@DavidBolin Welp, looks like I won't have Mana to feed my 12 kids with. RIP kiddos

@Haws Ef your kids, imma build a house. -Jimmy probably 😂

Also, if you have a Peanut Allergy, that sucks, cause it may be a source of life longevity.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/former-us-first-lady-rosalynn-carter-dies-96-2023-11-19/

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rosalynn-carter-entered-hospice-care-home-carter-center/story?id=104987086

I take the yes of this bet based on the generalized actuarial tables.

I really need this +1200 mana gain and not a -500 Mana loss 😂

Death is not funny, I just want my Mana 🤣

@SirCryptomind If Jimmy dies, we will be rich men.

Hi, I am Jimmy’s nurse. Today he sneezed three times. Will keep you guys updated.

@MParedis This is disgusting! Sick joke.

Yesterday Jimmy didn't finish his carrots. But he never really liked them anyway. Stay tuned.

@MParedis Carrots were always Jimmy's favorite 😭

@Mirek if the joke is wrong the whole market is wrong.

Last night, as Jimmy was having his pudding, a single tear appeared in the corner of his eye.
I asked him: "What's wrong, Jimmy?"
He replied: "If I can just last 5 more days, I will be a billionaire on Manifold."
@Predictor

@MParedis You heard him wrong since you were getting up to use the restroom, he said "If I pass within 5 days, I can give my farewell by making other predictors billionaires on manifold"