YES Still alive before December 1 (EDT)
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๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน2,278 | |
| 2 | แน782 | |
| 3 | แน722 | |
| 4 | แน478 | |
| 5 | แน288 |
@DavidBolin Note that the probability of death is not equally distributed, but lower at the start of the range.
@DavidBolin pretty sure age is one factor in actuary (IE, smoking status, medical tests such as blood and urine, previous conditions, etc - Source I am a dumb dumb that works in insurance).
That being said, it is probably around 1-.5% he will die in that time. But for 10 mana, I'm willing to take that bet.
@Haws Pretty sure once you get to that age, other factors become less and less relevant.
@Predictor It seems like market like this should probably resolve one day early in case it is announced Jimmy Carter is still alive (very common).
@Haws It is irresponsible to bet that someone is going to die in the next 9 days at a probability of 6%.
I take the yes of this bet based on the generalized actuarial tables.
I really need this +1200 mana gain and not a -500 Mana loss ๐
Death is not funny, I just want my Mana ๐คฃ
Last night, as Jimmy was having his pudding, a single tear appeared in the corner of his eye.
I asked him: "What's wrong, Jimmy?"
He replied: "If I can just last 5 more days, I will be a billionaire on Manifold."
@Predictor
@MParedis You heard him wrong since you were getting up to use the restroom, he said "If I pass within 5 days, I can give my farewell by making other predictors billionaires on manifold"