Will Alexei Navalny be released by the end of 2022?
20
11
183
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
In February 2021, Russian oppositionist politician Alexei Navalny was sentenced to three and a half years of prison in a penal colony. If Alexei Navalny is released from prison at any point on or before December 31, 2022, this market will resolve to “Yes”. That resolution will not be reversed by any eventual imprisonment that takes place after that release.
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R.I.P.

predicted NO
If he were brought to a hospital outside of a prison for medical care before being brought back into the prison, which way would the market resolve?

@TedSuzman That sort of thing isn't uncommon and definitely shouldn't count as being released from prison.