I'm interested in attempting to use Manifold's prediction markets and platform to start defining effective paths for kickstarting the adoption in liberal democracies of futarchy-like and other participative prediction-based systems for the purpose of improving collective decision-making, truthseeking and accountability.

I think I'd like to try achieving this through a movement (which I'm currently tentatively calling Predictive Democracy) that makes extensive use of prediction markets and other participative prediction-based systems for its own internal decisions, idea exploration and evaluation for at least two reasons:

1• the movement's success achieved through the tools it promotes would itself be rather strong evidence of the legitimacy and usefulness of said tools

2• the movement would have a certain amount of skin in the game, and an interest in diagnosing the limits of these tools it uses; patching them up or refining them where possible, and abandoning them where not

BOUNTIES OFFERED FOR ANY GOOD IDEAS/COMMENTS RELEVANT TO WHAT OUTLINED ABOVE.

I'm most interested in ideas regarding how to best go about this project and set up this initial phase to get the ball rolling, including — importantly — suggestions for further questions that could be asked on Manifold to start giving it a more defined shape.

The manifesto itself is still rather vague, needs work, and I certainly don't want to define it top-down on my own. I just tried to gesture at what I'm trying to do.

But I appreciate and could reward criticism too: e.g. are this project's objectives even desirable? Possible unintended consequences?

I can be fine with a fool's errand, but I wouldn't want to help create a monster.

And any other kind of interesting, relevant comment I didn't think about could be rewarded too, of course!

Will add more to the bounty pool if this turns out interesting.