Oh yeah, we back at it again!

Round two of the Claude meta-experiment.

As a reminder, after market close, I'll dump all of the info - the bets, the comments, this description - into Anthropic Claude.

This time, to avoid any sort of bias between "YES" and "NO", I've abstracted the decision into two new options for Claude to respond:

• RED [this maps to NO]

• BLU [this maps to YES]

[oh, also, any text between square brackets I'll strip out before dumping into Claude]

If Claude says RED, the market will resolve [NO]

If Claude says BLU, the market will also resolve [YES]

If Claude does not definitively choose, I'll bug it until it does.

As always, good fun, and have luck!

-Shucklelord

AI-Assisted Full Rules:

• When the market closes, the MC (Market Creator) will copy the entire market content (description, trades, percentages, and all comments) and submit it to Anthropic Claude

• The market will resolve to whichever option (RED or BLU) that Claude chooses in its final response

• If Claude doesn’t initially give an answer of RED or BLU, the MC will "be totally bummed" but keep prompting until a clear choice between RED or BLU is given.

Key Clarifications:

• The question isn’t whether Claude will resolve the market - a resolution to either RED or BLU is guaranteed

• The MC will not bet on this market

• The resolution depends entirely on Claude’s choice

Contingency Plans:

1. Token limit exceeded: MC will remove comments from the user who commented most, repeat until content fits

2. Safety classifier triggered:

• First MC will try manually censoring offensive phrases

• If that fails, MC will try with just market description and bets

• Final fallback: MC will use forceful prompt for RED/BLU answer

3. Data cleaning: MC may clean/restructure the data before submission while retaining all content, but might simply copy-paste the entire page if they get tired of sanitization

4. Deadman switch: If unresolved by Friday after closure, Manifold moderators should handle resolution

The market is a meta-experiment where Claude becomes the final arbiter of its own prediction market about Claude’s decision-making.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​