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MANIFOLD
The head of Turkish central bank stays in her position until 08/07/2024
8
Ṁ170Ṁ1.2k
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
NO

The date marks 12 months since her appointment.

Under her administration, the central bank has increased interest rates:

Following the increase on 22/07/23, BBC reported:
> Her decision marks the first rise in interest rates since December 2020, after a turbulent period in which three central bank governors were fired in less than two years, as they sought to stick to orthodox economics.

Here's some information about Erdogan's views on economics.

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predictedNO

It is settled now. Please close the market. https://www.resmigazete.gov.tr/eskiler/2024/02/20240203-15.pdf

@gmbleawy I will once she is removed from her function.

predictedNO

@ozan what do you mean? she has posted her resignation letter on twitter and the ministery of finance issued an official statement confirming her resignation and thanking her for her services. If you want to wait for a replacement, please note that the market rules do not require that. We will probably know her replacement until Monday at the latest but you should not drag this.

predictedNO
predictedNO

@gmbleawy I concur all evidence suggests this market will resolve no.

I also think it has not resolved yet. And I do not see the point of rushing.

Yet let's keep in mind that:

  • She did request Erdoğan to absolve her of her duties.

  • She was appointed by Erdoğan.

  • In 2020 we've witnessed that a minister (Soylu) has "requested his dismissal" and remained in place.

Until her request is approved by Erdoğan, with or without a replacement, there's a chance (albeit very small) that she'll stay in her seat.

I do not think keeping the market open is inconsistent with the way I formulated it. Feel free to invite a moderator. Feel also free to bring it down to 1%.

predictedNO

@ozan Thanks for your response but i dont think you understand how the concept works. She presented her resignation and Erdogan cant force her to work. At the moment she submitted her resignation, her term has ended. Even if she later decides to return to her position, her term will be interrupted. Resignation is a unilateral decision and does not require anyone's approval. It is in the constitution. Anyway we will know her replacement in about 15 min. hint: fatih karahan

predictedNO

Cheers.

I'll note this here and wait for the announcement.

predictedNO

@gmbleawy I added Fatih Karahan here. Thanks for the tip.

predictedNO

@ozan this cant get any better. you will need to resolve both markets pretty soon