I organized something today and some people travelled quite a bit.

I was trying to express this to someone and wanted to see if he's up for a wager.

I don't have a resolution criteria yet. Let's play a game: I'll consider adding another 1k liquidity or creating another market to address it directly, if a group of size P forms consensus on resolution criteria organically. Consensus can be achieved by commenting below publicly names of (P-1) people in a comment.

From hereon, this description was generated by Manifold's AI. I'll most likely replace it later.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the average one-way commute time (travel time from home to work) for residents of Utrecht (either the municipality of Utrecht or the province of Utrecht) is officially reported as strictly less than 30 minutes, meaning a 1-hour (60-minute) one-way commute is more than 2 times the average.

This market resolves to NO if the average Utrecht one-way commute time is 30 minutes or more.

Source of Truth: The market will be resolved using the most recent official dataset or report from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) (such as the Onderweg in Nederland / ODiN mobility surveys) or the Municipality of Utrecht (Onderzoek en Statistiek Utrecht) available at the time of resolution.

If multiple conflicting official figures exist at the time of resolution, the creator will use the most recent Utrecht municipality-specific one-way work commute average. If no Utrecht-specific average is available, the Dutch national average commute time will be used as a fallback.

Background

According to data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the national average one-way commute for all workers in the Netherlands is approximately 32 minutes. For those who work strictly on-location, the average drops to 25 minutes, while hybrid/homeworkers average 40 minutes.

Utrecht-specific regional statistics and transport studies have historically estimated local average one-way travel times to be between 23 and 27 minutes, largely due to high rates of bicycle commuting within the city. If the local average is below 30 minutes, a 1-hour commute represents more than double the typical commute time.

• Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no organic consensus is reached on the resolution criteria, the market will resolve to N/A.