Will there be a NATO no-fly zone in Ukraine during March 2022?

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resolved Apr 8

Resolved

ALL

Resolves YES if one or more NATO countries institute a no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine during some or all of March 2022. Close date updated to 2022-03-31 11:59 pm

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Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

34% chance

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Congratulations on putting it to test but initial estimate seems silly.

Countries not wanting WWIII seems like a reasonable pressure to move this closer to 0.

This would mean starting WWIII, and the US has explicitly said that it is off the table.

Not gonna happen. If they do this, they have to follow through on this, as Russia will ignore it. And NATO cannot do this

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Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?

-3% 1d34% chance

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