Resolution criteria

The Federal Reserve made its first rate cut in September 2025 and the second one was made on the date this market was created. This market resolves YES if the Fed makes a third interest rate adjustment (cut or hike) before December 31, 2025. The Fed's next rate decision is scheduled for December 10. Resolution will be determined by the official FOMC announcement on that date or any unscheduled emergency rate decision before year-end. Check the Federal Reserve's official website for the policy decision announcement.

Background

The Federal Reserve approved its second straight interest rate cut on October 29, 2025, bringing the benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. At the September meeting, officials indicated the likelihood of three total cuts this year. However, Powell stated there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December, and a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Traders lowered odds for a December cut to 67% from 90% a day ago.

Considerations

The Fed has been flying blind on economic data, with the government suspending all data collection and reports except for the consumer price index, meaning key measures like nonfarm payrolls and retail sales are unavailable. There is a growing chorus among the 19 Fed officials to at least wait a cycle before cutting again, introducing significant uncertainty about December's decision.