Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2027, the UK government officially increases the Lifetime ISA (LISA) property price limit to £550,000 or more for properties in London. Official confirmation must be published on a UK government website or through an official press release. If no such increase is announced by the end of 2027, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The Lifetime ISA (LISA) was introduced in 2017 to help first-time buyers save for a home, offering a 25% government bonus on contributions up to £4,000 annually. The property price cap for using LISA funds without penalty has remained at £450,000 since its inception. However, average property prices in London have risen significantly, with the average first-time buyer property price exceeding £450,000 in many boroughs. (nutmeg.com)

Considerations

• Calls for Reform: Industry experts and financial institutions have urged the government to raise the LISA property price cap to reflect current market conditions. For instance, AJ Bell has suggested increasing the cap to £575,550, aligning with the 27.9% rise in average UK property prices since 2017. (ajbell.co.uk)

• Government Response: As of April 2025, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds, acknowledged the concerns but indicated that any changes would require budgetary considerations. (mortgagefinancegazette.com)

• Potential Policy Changes: There have been discussions about adjusting the LISA property price cap, with some reports suggesting possible announcements in upcoming government statements. (thisismoney.co.uk)

Traders should monitor official UK government communications and reputable news sources for any announcements regarding changes to the LISA property price cap in London.

• Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirms that for the market to resolve Yes, the increase to the LISA limit must be in effect by December 31, 2027. An official announcement of an increase that is set to take effect after this date will result in a No resolution.