Will Trump be disqualified from holding office before the 2024 election?
15
108
แน€1k
Nov 7
3%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is found to be ineligible to hold public office under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment, or if some similar measure is taken that, at the very least, excludes him from being the president or a member of Congress. He must be officially found to be excluded before the last polls close on Election Day for it to count (so, e.g., if he was elected, but then he was prevented from taking office due to the insurrection clause, it wouldn't count).

Death does not count, even though that would also make him ineligible to hold office. It would, however, count if he was posthumously found to have been ineligible even before his death.

Note due to recent news: Although he has been found by Colorado to be ineligible to hold public office due to the insurrection clause, this doesn't actually qualify for a YES resolution, since this isn't enough to prevent him from being elected president, or from being elected to Congress by any state except Colorado. He must be found ineligible by a body that has the power to exclude him from the presidency and all Congressional positions.

Thus, it also won't count if the Supreme Court rules that he is ineligible but still allows him to run for president anyway due to some shenanigans about what counts as an "office under the United States".

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:
bought แน€20 of YES

@Calvin6b82 Yeah, though it's hard to believe that a SCOTUS with a conservative supermajority would agree to disqualify Trump.

predicts YES

@PlasmaBallin if the US Supreme Court decides not to hear the appeal (does not grant certiorari) to this case or choose not hear this case until after January 5th in which case the appeal is dismissed as moot. Meaning Trump will not appear on the Colorado primary ballot, does that count as "found to be ineligible to hold public office under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment"?

@Calvin6b82 No, because that would really only exclude him from being elected to public office by Colorado. It would not meet the requirement to "at the very least, exclude him from being the president or a member of Congress," since he could very well be elected president anyway.

Does this resolve to yes if ANY jurisdiction makes such a finding, if enough jurisdictions make a finding that it becomes impossible to reach 270 EVs, or only if the matter is adjudicated by SCOTUS or the US Congress?

@MattSmith950b I would say it has to be made on the federal level.