If the Supreme Court rules that Trump is eligible, will it be only because president isn’t an “officer”?
Mini
14
Ṁ2485
resolved Mar 5
Resolved
NO

Section 3. No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is ineligible to run in the primary because of the above clause in the US Constitution. However, this may be appealed to the federal Supreme Court.

If they override Colorado and rule that Trump is eligible, will it only be because they don’t consider the president to be an “officer of the United States,” implying they do believe Trump engaged in insurrection or rebellion that would disqualify him from being Senator, Representative, or another officer position? If they say that he’s not an officer but also wouldn’t be disqualified anyway, that resolves NO.

Resolves N/A if SCOTUS doesn’t provide a decision, finds that Trump is ineligible, or I’m sufficiently confused that I don’t understand how to resolve this market. Please comment if my description reveals that I’ve misunderstood something!

I will extend close as necessary.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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It seems like they’re saying that states don’t have the power to enforce this, so seems like the question of whether he was an “officer” wasn’t the linchpin

predicted NO

One thing to note is that the lower Colorado court ruled that “officer” does not apply to POTUS, which the Colorado Supreme Court rejected

@JoshuaB I just read the lower court decision, and I’m kinda convinced right now that officer does not apply to POTUS (I have not read the other CO Supreme Court decision though). For the reasoning it’s the end of the district court’s decision in Andersen v. Griswold from 11/14

Obviously whether I’m convinced doesn’t have much bearing on the Supreme Court, but I initially thought that it was ridiculous to think Section 3 of the 14th wouldn’t apply to the President, now it seems quite reasonable.

It seems unlikely that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump did insurrection but who knows.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@JoshuaB Trump argued himself that "officer" does apply to the President.

THE PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF NEW YORK,

v.

DONALD J. TRUMP, Defendant.

POINT I: THE PRESIDENT IS AN OFFICER OF THE UNITED STATES WHO CAN REMOVE CASES TO FEDERAL COURT

The President of the United States is an “officer . . . of the United States” under 28 U.S.C. § 1442(a)(1). DANY’s argument to the contrary is unconvincing and the Court should reject it.