Will this market stay at at least 69% for at least 69 continuous days (out of 420)?
42
650Ṁ30kresolved Jul 22
Resolved
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This market will be open for 420 days (unless it resolves early). If the displayed probability (rounded to the nearest % for the relevant values) is at least 69% for any continuous 69 day period before close, it will resolve YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO at close.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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It costs twice as much mana and generates one eighth the profit per mana invested for a whale with a YES position to defend a >=69% probability than it does for NOs to break through it, and the NOs don't need a contiguous chunk of <69% to win. This will resolve NO. Lord help anyone who tries to defend a YES position.
@chrisjbillington Yea, there's no way this resolves YES unless everyone forgets about it. Assuming vigilance, this is a 0%-er.