In the last presidential election, the American Samoa caucus was the only primary or caucus won by Michael Bloomberg. This year, the Democratic caucus was won by unknown candidate Jason Palmer, who, while the primaries are not technically finished yet, will almost certainly not win any other contest. Will American Samoa continue its trend in 2028 and produce another fluke victory?

For the purposes of this market, the winner of a contest is whichever candidate receives the most pledged delegates from it, or, in the case of a tie, whichever of the tied candidates received the most votes (or was ranked higher by whatever voting method was used). This means that contests that don't count for anything (like the 2024 Nevada Republican primary) don't count here, unless they're the only official contest in the state (like the 2024 New Hampshire Democratic primary). A contest is any primary, caucus, or other method used for a state to determine who its delegates will vote for in the Democratic National Convention.